Uzomah into the passing game, sustaining drives without the tendency to break away and drift in the pocket, showing coordinators he can slice up a team between zero and 10 yards with quick-hitting routes … all of this, much like it does for Aaron Rodgers, Wilson’s ultimate stylistic muse, causes more defensive vulnerabilities from which to exploit the truly devastating parts of Wilson’s game. His DYAR (defensive-adjusted yards above replacement) was the worst in the NFL, lower than the man he replaced, Sam Darnold, by 11 yards (by comparison, Davis Mills and Daniel Jones seemed to be the league’s definition of replacement level last year, with roughly 0 DYAR). Last year, despite wins against dominant AFC clubs like the Titans and Bengals, Wilson posted a total QBR of 28.2, which was better than only Justin Fields. Wilson needs to be a better all-around handler of football games. Hurts also allows the Eagles to basically run three different offenses, forcing opponents to guess each week, and each down, what is coming next. Last year, his EPA (expected points added) per play was roughly the same as Derek Carr, who had a resurgent season a year ago and played one of his best years in the NFL total. Hurts may not be a game-changing quarterback, but he is more efficient than we might assume.
Having a slightly sexier statistical campaign than Hurts did in ’21 would represent a massive win for the 49ers. In real life, I see this manifesting practically, because we thought of Jalen Hurts in almost the exact same way. Last year, Lance showed promise as a scoring machine, averaging the third-most fantasy points per dropback of any quarterback in football since 2011 (albeit with a woefully small sample size). This is a strange place to start, but we’re getting there, I promise. This should create a better completion rate (though, interestingly, most systems that tie the running and passing games together seem more efficient but less rocket-fueled for QB completion percentages than low-risk passing offenses that were popularized in the early 2010s).ġ5 starts, 60% completion rate, 30 total touchdowns, fewer than 15 interceptions, more than 700 rushing yardsįantasy football is not real life, but fantasy success does impact our global understanding of quarterback value. We’re going to factor in a more concerted effort to tie the running game and the passing game together. This should lead to a decrease in interceptions. So, for Lawrence’s “first” year, we’re going to take into account a reintegration of the kinds of plays he likes to run, in which receivers stay in their assigned parts of the field and seldom run into each other. He will-and should-be treated like a rookie quarterback who had a strange sleepover at nightmare camp last year. For all intents and purposes, the Lawrence of 2021 simply doesn’t exist. Have you ever seen an episode of Hoarders and wondered why the first option wasn’t always just to plow the house down and start over? Well, the new coaching staff in Jacksonville seems to be plowing the house down. 17 starts, 63% completion rate, two or more game-winning drives, 22 touchdowns, fewer than 15 interceptions
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